Points were sampled uniformly in the bands denoted by dashed lines. We posit that these barriers are due, at least in part, to the sensitivity of decision trees to transformations of the input resulting from greedy construction and simple decision rules. Of these, key limitation is the latter; even if we replace greedy construction with a perfect tree learner, simple distributions can nonetheless require an arbitrarily large axis-aligned tree to fit.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

However, these decisions may be imperfect due to limited experience, implicit biases, or faulty probabilistic reasoning.

Decision trees are well-known due to their ease of interpretability. To improve accuracy, we need to grow deep trees or ensembles of trees. These are hard to interpret, offsetting their original benefits. Shapley values have recently become a popular way to explain the predictions of tree-based machine learning models. It provides a linear weighting to features independent of the tree structure. The rise in popularity is mainly due to TreeShap, which solves a general exponential complexity problem in polynomial time. Following extensive adoption in the industry, more efficient algorithms are required. This paper presents a more efficient and straightforward algorithm: Linear TreeShap. Like TreeShap, Linear TreeShap is exact and requires the same amount of memory.

Afewstudies haveexplored sequential stay-or-leavedecisions in humans, or rodents - the model organism used to access neuronal activity at high resolution. In both cases, decision patterns were collected inforaging tasks-the experimental settings where subjects decide when to leave depleting resources (2).

Prediction sets can wrap around any ML model to cover unknown test outcomes with a guaranteed probability. Yet, it remains unclear how to use them optimally for downstream decision-making. Here, we propose a decision-theoretic framework that seeks to minimize the expected loss (risk) against a worst-case distribution consistent with the prediction set's coverage guarantee. We first characterize the minimax optimal policy for a fixed prediction set, showing that it balances the worst-case loss inside the set with a penalty for potential losses outside the set. Building on this, we derive the optimal prediction set construction that minimizes the resulting robust risk subject to a coverage constraint. Finally, we introduce Risk-Optimal Conformal Prediction (ROCP), a practical algorithm that targets these risk-minimizing sets while maintaining finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage. Empirical evaluations on medical diagnosis and safety-critical decision-making tasks demonstrate that ROCP reduces critical mistakes compared to baselines, particularly when out-of-set errors are costly.